To almost no one’s surprise, the Big 12 decided to stay put with 10 teams after possibly extracting some extra cash from its television partners.
So does that mean we have peace for our time in college football?
Hardly. As the Big 12’s dog-and-pony show concluded on Monday with a press conference, the most unbelievable statement came from Oklahoma president David Boren. He declared that the the 10 teams from the Big 12 are committed to stay together for the long haul.
If you believe that, I have a bridge on the south end of Manhattan I’d like to sell you.
In many ways, the Big 12 pretty much authored its own demise eight years hence with its decision not to expand. Texas and Oklahoma, about the only two valuable properties in the conference, will be busy flirting elsewhere over the next decade. Monday’s decision merely delays the next round of realignment until the current TV and grant-of-rights agreements run out after the 2024-25 season.
What will happen next?
It’s almost without question that Texas has its eyes set on the Big Ten – and vice versa. It’s a good fit culturally and athletically. The Longhorns will have to ditch their namesake TV network, but since it’s bleeding money annually for ESPN, that’s probably not a deal-breaker by that point.
Oklahoma most likely will end up in the SEC, with Oklahoma State in tow as a package deal. Kansas might join Texas in the Big Ten, even with its weak football program. It has a powerhouse basketball team, can deliver a decent sized market (Kansas City, Mo.) and has the best academic profile after Texas in the Big 12 as a member of the Association of American Universities.
The ACC will probably poach some combination of UConn, Cincinnati and West Virginia, taking one or two of these teams. If independence proves to be a flop in the playoff era, Notre Dame might swallow hard and finally become a full member of the ACC.
That creates three 16-team super conferences, along with the Pac-12. With a floundering network and increasing revenue gap between it and the Big Ten, SEC and ACC, it’s doubtful that the Pac-12 will be in position to create its own 16-team conference, especially considering the slim pickin’s of the leftovers. Likely it’ll stand pat as it is unless it wants to scoop up lower-profile schools such as San Diego State or UNLV.
More probable than not, the remaining Big 12 schools (Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor) as well as BYU will be picked up by either the American Athletic or Mountain West. These two won’t become power conferences, but may have slightly better access to a revamped playoff system after the current CFP deal expires following the 2025 season.
Is your head done spinning yet? It’s OK. It’ll be a few years before the next expansion/realignment show kicks in gear.
Game of the Week
Texas A&M at Alabama (-17.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
This is supposed to be the middle part of Alabama’s three-game “gauntlet” but the truth is that’s just hype. The Crimson Tide are head and shoulders above everyone else in the very mediocre SEC and they probably won’t face much resistance from the unbeaten Aggies on Saturday for more than a half. Until the playoff, it doesn’t appear anyone has a legitimate chance of knocking off the defending national champion.
Also keep an eye on
TCU at West Virginia (-5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
The Mountaineers passed their road test with flying colors in Lubbock a week ago, but this will be their sternest challenge to-date in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. WVU is 1-3 against the Frogs and has never beaten them in Morgantown since both teams joined the Big 12 in 2012. But this year the Mountaineers might finally have the defense to squeak one out against a pretty ordinary TCU team.
Ole Miss at LSU (-5.5), 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Is there really any reason for either team to be ranked? The SEC has eight ranked team in the latest AP poll but none of them has beaten a single ranked team in a nonconference game. But somehow these SEC teams continue to play and beat each other while staying ranked. Both of these teams’ best games of the season to-date are in fact losses, with Ole Miss losing to Alabama and LSU beaten at Wisconsin.
Player to watch
BYU at Boise State (-7), 10:15 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN
No doubt BYU is crushed by the Big 12’s decision not to expand as it’s easily the most attractive program not currently in a Power 5 conference. The Cougars must put that disappointment aside to face the most formidable team outside of the Power 5. If they want to pull off a victory on the blue turf they will have to ride their senior running back Jamaal Williams, who’s second in FBS with 942 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.